How the US-China Tariff War Could Impact Singapore Property: A 2025 Outlook

Not Great News.

Singapore just slashed its 2025 GDP growth outlook to a meager 0%–2%, and guess who’s partly to blame? Yep, the never-ending US-China trade drama.

Here’s the thing—when two economic giants like the US and China go head-to-head, trade-dependent countries like ours don’t walk away unscathed. Sectors like shipping, manufacturing, and exports start to feel the squeeze.

So even if 0%–2% growth isn’t exactly a crisis, it’s a pretty strong hint that we’re in for a rougher road ahead.

But what does this mean for the Singapore property market? Will prices fall? Will demand slow down? Here’s my take as a realtor on what home buyers, sellers, and investors should watch for.

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🔄 The Global Trade Tension: A Quick Recap

The US-China trade war has flared up again, with both sides rolling out new tariffs on major goods. The US is going after Chinese electric vehicles, chips, and solar panels, while China’s hitting back with duties on American farm products and rare earth materials.

It might sound like something happening far from home, but for Singapore, it’s anything but distant. As a global player in shipping, electronics, and finance, we’re tightly linked to both economies. So when tensions rise, we definitely feel the shake-up—be it in our GDP, exports, or how confident businesses and investors are feeling.

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🏘️ How This Could Affect Singapore’s Property Market

1. Impact on Employment and Rentals If slower economic growth leads to job losses or hiring freezes, particularly affecting expatriate workers, the rental market could feel the pressure, especially in the mid-to-high-end segments. CBRE's Head of Research for Singapore and Southeast Asia, Tricia Song, noted that an outflow of expatriates could impact rental demand.   2. Slowdown in Demand from Foreign Investors

The situation could be a double-edged sword for foreign investment. Heightened global uncertainty might make some foreign investors more cautious, potentially reducing capital inflow. However, Singapore's long-standing reputation as a safe-haven destination could attract capital seeking stability amidst the turmoil. Huttons Asia's Senior Director of Data Analytics, Lee Sze Teck, suggested that more foreign buyers might turn to the local market due to this "flight to safety," potentially viewing even the significant 60% Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) as acceptable for securing assets in a stable environment. Luxury and prime real estate have traditionally attracted foreign buyers—especially from China. If China's economy slows due to US tariffs, we could see fewer high-net-worth individuals investing abroad. This might soften demand in the CCR (Core Central Region), which could put downward pressure on luxury property prices.

3. Local Buyer Sentiment May Turn Cautious

While tariffs don't directly target Singapore's housing market, the knock-on effects on GDP growth, job security, and overall confidence could dampen enthusiasm among potential buyers. Some experts suggest buyers might become more cautious, avoid overstretching budgets, or postpone purchases until the economic picture becomes clearer. This could lead to a slight dip in transaction volumes and moderate the pace of price increases in the coming months.This could reduce activity in the RCR (Rest of Central Region) and OCR (Outside Central Region) markets, especially for new launches or resale condos priced at a premium.

4. Developers May Adjust Pricing

If buying demand weakens, developers may become more realistic with launch pricing—especially for projects nearing ABSD deadlines. This could offer opportunities for buyers who are well-prepared and watching the market closely.

5. Interest Rates Still Matter More

Despite the global trade war, a key variable remains: interest rates. If the Fed cuts rates to counter the economic slowdown, we might see mortgage rates ease in Singapore, which could partially offset the dampening sentiment. Lower borrowing costs may attract opportunistic buyers.

6. Resilience in HDB and Mass Market Segments

The fundamentals in the mass market and HDB segments remain stable. Demand from first-time buyers and upgraders, backed by stable employment and BTO delays, should provide some cushion—even during uncertain economic times.

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💡 What Should You Do as a Buyer, Seller, or Investor?

• Buyers: Watch for price adjustments and interest rate changes. It could be a good time to enter if you find value and can commit long-term.

• Sellers: Be realistic about pricing. Understand that buyers may be more selective. Strategic marketing is key to standing out.

• Investors: Consider rental yields, not just capital appreciation. The rental market remains relatively resilient, especially for units near MRTs and business hubs.

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🧭 Final Thoughts

The US-China Trade War Is Back And It Could Ripple Right to Our Doorstep

Just when we thought things might cool down, the US and China are at it again, hitting each other with new tariffs on everything from electric cars to soybeans. The US is going hard after Chinese EVs, chips, and solar panels, while China is firing back with duties on American farm goods and rare earth minerals.

Now, you might think, "That’s their problem, not ours." But here’s the thing: Singapore isn’t just a bystander. We’re a major hub for trade, tech, and finance deeply plugged into both economies. When these two giants clash, the shockwaves don’t just stay overseas. They ripple into our GDP, exports, and even how confident businesses and investors feel about the future.

So yeah, this trade war? It’s a lot closer to home than we think.

Long-term? We’ll probably be okay. Singapore’s got a strong, diverse economy and a prime spot in Asia, that’ll help soften the blow. But short-term? Don’t be surprised if the property market gets a little shaky.