Property Cooling Measure in 2025?

If you’ve read my previous article, you might recall that Singapore’s property prices are likely to continue rising in 2025. However, will the government allow prices to keep climbing, especially when they’re already so high in both the private and public sectors? The market is pushing its limits, and if prices keep rising, it’s more likely that new cooling measures will be introduced.

Just to clarify, I haven’t received any information from an official source yet. Based on the chart above and the analysis below, I believe cooling measures might be introduced soon, especially in an election year.

Recap the recent cooling measures after COVID: Aug 2024: Reduced LTV limit from 80% to 75% for HDB Loans Apr 2023: Increased ABSD       - 30% to 60% for foreigners       - 2nd property 17% to 20%, 3rd properties onwards 25% to 30% for SC       - 2nd property 25% to 30% for PRs Sep 2022: - Reduced the TDSR ratio to 55%                    - Private property owners must wait 15 months after selling their private property before buying an HDB resale flat.                    - Reduced LTV limit from 85% to 80% for HDB Loans                    - HDB uses an interest rate of 3% from 2.6% to calculate the loan amount Dec 2021: Increased ABSD       - 20% to 30% for foreigners       - 2nd property 12% to 17%, 3rd properties onwards 15% to 25% for SC       - 2nd property 25% to 30% for PRs It's clear that the cooling measure introduced in 2024 had only a minor impact. In Q4 2024, resale prices still rose by 2.5% compared to Q3, which is similar to the 2.7% increase from Q2 to Q3 and the 2.3% rise from Q1 to Q2. This trend suggests a high likelihood of additional cooling measures being implemented in 2025.

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What do the government and others say?

Public housing will always be kept affordable for Singaporeans, both now and in the future, said Prime Minister Lawrence Wong on 21 Jan 2025. The Prime Minister noted that resale flat prices are “on the high side”, but also said that the pandemic caused a supply disruption as the construction industry was severely impacted. Delivering the opening address, Minister for National Development Desmond Lee said:

“Government 'not averse' to more property cooling measures but will wait for current ones to work” “Homebuyers should continue to exercise caution and be prudent when making property purchases because those who buy high in the property cycle – especially at prices above market valuation – may be hit hardest when the market cycle comes down.”

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Combined with an influx of supply, it could lead to a 5% drop in prices this year said Morgan Stanley

The property boom is expected to continue into early 2025, driven by investors looking to buy and sell units for profit before construction is completed, analysts led by Wilson Ng said in a report on January 6. However, with a large number of new homes becoming available, prices could fall by 5% this year, the analysts added.

Other analysts, including Citigroup and Barclays, have also warned of potential government actions, especially as housing affordability becomes a key concern ahead of an election year.

Private home prices jumped 2.3% in the last quarter, the fastest growth in a year, according to early data. Morgan Stanley believes any new measures would likely focus on raising seller’s stamp duties to curb speculative flipping, which has been driving demand.

Investors flipping properties in 2023–2024 made an average profit of 21%, far higher than in previous years. This has fueled the market’s rapid growth.